- The SBI Research report shows that the trade deal with the United States will lead to significant export growth according to its findings. The trade surplus is expected to reach $90 billion which corresponds to Rs. 8.19 lakh crore even with increased import activity.
- The report shows that exports from the top 15 product categories will reach $97 billion on an annual basis. Total exports will exceed $100 billion within a year when combined with additional product categories.
Projected Impact on GDP
- India achieved a trade surplus of $40.9 billion with the United States in 2024–25. The first nine months of 2025–26 recorded a surplus of $26 billion. The report indicates that additional export growth will push the annual surplus to $90 billion.
- India will experience a 1.1% increase in GDP because of rising export activities. Economic development will benefit from increased export revenue which will also enhance international trade results.
Trade Opportunities and Market Position
- The United States accounts for 20% of India’s total exports. The United States only constitutes 7% of India’s import market. The United States holds approximately 15% of India’s service import market.
- India demonstrates strong export capabilities because it imports fewer goods than it exports. The United States needs to focus on expanding its business opportunities in India because the country is becoming a bigger market for American services and specific product categories.
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