Exit Poll Trends: Kerala And Assam
  • Exit polls indicate different political directions in Kerala and Assam.
  • The government of Kerala may experience a transformation.
  • The existing ruling coalition in Assam may continue to hold power.

Kerala Assembly Elections: Changing Voter Mood

  • The assembly elections in Kerala will take place across 140 electoral districts. The election took place on April 9. The main contest is between the Left Democratic Front (LDF) and the United Democratic Front (UDF).
  • The LDF, which the CPM leads, currently holds power. The government has already been established by the government two times through Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan. Voters in Kerala typically switch their voting preference to an opposing party after five years of the existing administration. The LDF won the 2021 elections which marked a shift from the established voting pattern in Kerala.
  • The exit polls indicate that voters are now supporting different candidates.

Exit Poll Predictions for Kerala

Different agencies provide seat estimates:

  • Axis My India: UDF 78–90, LDF 49–62, BJP+ 0–3
  • People’s Pulse: UDF 75–85, LDF 55–65, BJP+ 0–3
  • Vote Vibe: UDF 70–80, LDF 58–68, BJP+ 0–4
  • People’s Insight: UDF 66–76, LDF 58–68, BJP+ 10–14, Others 0–1

The UDF leads all projections which show the electoral results between the UDF and LDF. Some estimates suggest that the BJP could win a small number of seats.

Factors Influencing Kerala Projections

  • The recent local body elections proved to be a successful election for the UDF. Exit polls reflect a similar trend in the assembly election.
  • Voters will decide based on the current administrative situation and their dissatisfaction with existing officials. The present system of government will be ending because of these two factors.

Assam Assembly Elections: Stability Expected

  • Assam shows a different pattern. The BJP and its allies have governed the state for two terms.
  • The current election suggests a direct contest between the BJP alliance and the Congress alliance. Exit polls indicate that the BJP alliance may retain power.

Exit Poll Predictions for Assam

The agencies present seat projections which define the following numbers:

  • Axis My India: BJP Alliance 88–100, Congress Alliance 24–36 
  • Matrize: BJP Alliance 85–95, Congress Alliance 25–32
  • People’s Pulse: BJP Alliance 68–72, Congress Alliance 22–26
  • Chanakya Strategies: BJP Alliance 88–98, Congress Alliance 22–32
  • P-MARQ: BJP Alliance 82–94, Congress Alliance 30–40
  • Vote Vibe: BJP Alliance 90–100, Congress Alliance 23–33
  • JVC: BJP Alliance 88–101, Congress Alliance 23–33

Most agencies show a clear lead for the BJP alliance.